Plansmith Blog

As increased competition and consolidation challenge the financial industry, your business must continue to adapt using strategies for success, not unlike those of other businesses.

Manufacturing and retail have long used product management techniques to meet competitive pressures for pricing, product planning, and growth strategies. If financial institutions are to survive and prosper in this highly charged competitive environment, management must understand and control all components of profitability. Margin and equity risks have been addressed using regulatory rate shock methodologies, as well as recommended and required stress testing of the loan portfolio, including loan losses. Product profitability combines these concepts with an often-overlooked element of cost – overhead.

For banks and credit unions, navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape requires more than just intuition and experience. It demands a clear vision, a roadmap etched with achievable goals, and a dedicated pursuit of those objectives. Goal setting emerges as the compass guiding organizations through market volatility, technological disruptions, and changing customer expectations. Effective goal setting empowers banks and credit unions to not only survive but thrive in a dynamic financial ecosystem.

In the face of complexity and uncertainty, human instinct seeks order and guidance. A playbook, whether etched on ancient clay tablets or stored in modern cloud servers, provides this very structure. It transcends a mere collection of rules; it's a living document, a distilled wisdom of past experiences, offering a roadmap for navigating future challenges. The benefits of a well-crafted playbook are manifold, weaving their magic across both individual and collective endeavors.

"Which measurements would you put highest priority on in 2024?"

I’d say that Net Interest Margin (NIM) changes and Economic Value of Equity (EVE) should continue to be the primary focus of IRR management in 2024. Gap calculations rarely give the full picture (focused on timing of reprice, and not magnitude), and Duration measurements can be difficult to understand. Given the extreme rate increases in the past two years and the bank failures in 2023, all financial institution managers and directors should have a clear understanding of how future market rate changes could impact both shorter-term earnings (aka the NIM in the next one and two years) and longer-term capital values (aka the EVE).

For the past few years, I’ve written about the varying circumstances surrounding Surge Deposits. From “the death of” to the “resurgence,” it seems to be a consistently hot topic – this year, with a slight twist. While previously keeping a close watch on the influx of demand deposits, we’re now seeing increased pressure on funding flowing either from non-maturity deposits (NMDs) into higher costing CDs, or out of financial institutions all together. 

Before we get further, if you haven’t yet read my other blogs discussing Surge Deposits, or could use a refresher, click here to do so.

Our recent blog discussed Product Profitability, or the process of analyzing your product line by looking at each asset category and adjusting its yield by adding non-interest income, and subtracting applicable loan losses and overhead. The overhead we associated with the asset was its funding liability cost less applicable service charges. This gave us a more heightened awareness of the true earning potential of each earning asset.

I’m often asked, “What are the differences between a plan, a budget, forecasting, reforecasting, what-ifs, and stress testing?” Although some of the actions are similar and often intermingled in conversation, it’s their purpose that defines them. If you’re a client, most even involve similar keystrokes using your Plansmith software navigation; yet each plays a unique role within your organization’s total planning process. Let’s discuss.

Budget

To start, everyone’s familiar with a budget, but let’s make sure we see it for what it really is. A budget is a prediction or forecast of a financial position at a set time in the future, typically one year. A budget represents a desired financial outcome and requires consent by your board of directors. Most often a Budget is primarily thought of as cost allocations, but when combined with ideas regarding new business, you will often hear it referred to as a Plan. Once approved, the Budget Plan never changes. It is ‘set in stone’ for the duration of your selected time period.

A common misconception is that planning is an annual event. Budgeting: setting targets and allocating expenses; true, but what happens next? As life goes on, rates fluctuate, new opportunities for growth appear, and your ever-changing customer expectations must be managed. Your budget, as it was initially locked in, must die and be reborn accordingly.

There are several ways to get a better handle on your financial future and get your plan back on track to meet your goals.

For many, the art of planning feels counterintuitive, as its core is not accounting-based as much as it’s a sociological experiment. We use a planning model to simulate the environment and measure the ramifications of change on the balance sheet. However, the real test is anticipating the resulting business hinging upon your customers’ changing needs.

You hear over and over again that the one thing you can always count on is change. Change is what you hope for as a financial intuition. It’s what drives business and profits. Rate change, as we all know, can be one of the most volatile components of your business, and at the same time, the very heart of banking itself.

It was only two months ago we released a blog discussing the critical role that liquidity management will play in 2023. Fast forward to now, and two financial institutions have been closed due to, at least in part, funding imbalances – the first banks in three years to fail. Although liquidity and interest rate risk often take a backseat under stable economic conditions, times like these require you to take an in-depth look into your asset liability management program to ensure you have a plan to both meet funding needs and stay in compliance with regulatory expectations.