Plansmith Blog

Uncertainty and volatility seem to be the only consistent elements concerning the post-COVID economy. So, how do you adequately measure the financial impact today’s economic landscape will have on your business? By utilizing a true planning model.

A professional forecasting platform for Budgeting and ALM/IRR adapts to changing conditions. As it is relationship-driven, it can be set to react to environmental changes, including rates. As the rate environment shifts, so should your balance sheet growth and product mix. Planning models help you test the impact of such changes and measure results in minutes, not hours.

For banks and credit unions, navigating the ever-evolving financial landscape requires more than just intuition and experience. It demands a clear vision, a roadmap etched with achievable goals, and a dedicated pursuit of those objectives. Goal setting emerges as the compass guiding organizations through market volatility, technological disruptions, and changing customer expectations. Effective goal setting empowers banks and credit unions to not only survive but thrive in a dynamic financial ecosystem.

In the last two years, the Fed has implemented 11 increases in the target Fed Funds rate, amounting to a total of 525 basis points. These moves were aimed at tempering the overheated economy in the wake of the COVID pandemic.
As a result of these increases, we have seen massive shifts in deposit balances as consumers have become more aware of opportunities to move balances from lower yielding non-maturity deposits into higher yielding CDs and alternative investment products. While we can’t be sure of what future market rate movements will be, or when they will occur, every financial institution must be prepared for any outcome.

Considering this era is marked by economic uncertainty and rapid shifts, understanding liquidity's critical role continues to be paramount. Here are three key reasons maintaining a strong liquidity risk management program in 2024 and beyond is not a suggestion, but a necessity for community banks and credit unions.

Risk is inevitable in banking; in fact, it’s what makes banking profitable. The question is, how much risk is acceptable? Recognizing that existing techniques of measurement were sometimes misleading and arbitrary, Plansmith developed a simple calculation called "Margin Risk Tolerance" that defines how much risk each bank can take. Despite the wealth of banking information Plansmith has at hand, we believe risk relates to the individual bank, and cannot be measured to any peer standard or magic number.

Margin risk tolerance calculates the minimum net interest income and net interest margin necessary to maintain continuing operations. Minimum margin consists of two basic components: 1) earnings needed to maintain an acceptable capital ratio and pay dividends, and 2) earnings needed for overhead.

What do massive shifts in deposits, a possible impending recession, and a tremendous hike in interest rates have in common? Absolute potential for wreaking havoc on your institution’s liquidity position. One unplanned or mismanaged situation could mean falling out of policy limits, or worse.

Before we dig into what the present state of the economy could mean for your organization’s liquidity position, let’s make sure we’re on the same page with what we’re discussing. Per the OCC, “Liquidity is the risk to a bank's earnings and capital arising from its inability to timely meet obligations when they come due without incurring unacceptable losses. Bank management must ensure that sufficient funds are available at a reasonable cost to meet potential demands from both funds providers and borrowers.”

In the face of complexity and uncertainty, human instinct seeks order and guidance. A playbook, whether etched on ancient clay tablets or stored in modern cloud servers, provides this very structure. It transcends a mere collection of rules; it's a living document, a distilled wisdom of past experiences, offering a roadmap for navigating future challenges. The benefits of a well-crafted playbook are manifold, weaving their magic across both individual and collective endeavors.

"Which measurements would you put highest priority on in 2024?"

I’d say that Net Interest Margin (NIM) changes and Economic Value of Equity (EVE) should continue to be the primary focus of IRR management in 2024. Gap calculations rarely give the full picture (focused on timing of reprice, and not magnitude), and Duration measurements can be difficult to understand. Given the extreme rate increases in the past two years and the bank failures in 2023, all financial institution managers and directors should have a clear understanding of how future market rate changes could impact both shorter-term earnings (aka the NIM in the next one and two years) and longer-term capital values (aka the EVE).

Establishing and maintaining a sound interest rate risk (IRR) program is crucial to ensure proper balance sheet structure and comply with Regulatory expectations. During my 20+ years as a senior FDIC examiner, I routinely saw organizations experiencing issues with their ALM/IRR practices, ranging from loose misunderstandings of the guidance to critical errors that put the health of the organization at risk. Unfortunately, in my current advisory role, I see the same issues all too often.

For the past few years, I’ve written about the varying circumstances surrounding Surge Deposits. From “the death of” to the “resurgence,” it seems to be a consistently hot topic – this year, with a slight twist. While previously keeping a close watch on the influx of demand deposits, we’re now seeing increased pressure on funding flowing either from non-maturity deposits (NMDs) into higher costing CDs, or out of financial institutions all together. 

Before we get further, if you haven’t yet read my other blogs discussing Surge Deposits, or could use a refresher, click here to do so.

Are you really planning, or are you just budgeting?

By this I mean, are you filling out the numbers on a spreadsheet or planning the actions needed to make it a reality?

It’s always gratifying when all the numbers come together in a neat package showing expected growth and earnings for next year. And, there were likely many contributors who verbally expressed their goals and plans on how they are going to reach them. The compiled financial targets are then presented to and accepted by the board, and your monthly comparisons begin. Budget “predictions” are compared to reality. Variances from “budget” are explained, and business continues as usual. In essence, that’s budgeting.