The Fed has officially raised rates, with the intention of continuing to do so several more times this year. What does that mean for your financial institution, and how will it affect your Budgeting and ALM/IRR programs in 2022? Let’s focus on a few areas of concern, specifically Financial Reporting, Strategic Decision Making, and Board/ALCO oversight.
Planning in a Rising Rate Environment….didn’t see this coming?
We all knew that rates would be on the rise in 2022; it’s a normal reaction in an inflationary economy. But how many of us were able to predict when, how much, and how often those changes would occur?
Not to worry, one of the greatest advantages of a full simulation model is its ability to adapt! Managing your current plan should be no big deal as your Plansmith system uses dynamic models and a monthly RateForecast download to keep your plan current. This is truly where our products perform because of their ability to provide management with balance sheet, income statement, and yield/cost information that is current and reprojects the anticipated outcome at year end.
CECL is coming soon and isn’t going away. However, many financial institutions have not yet solidified their CECL plans. Maybe your CECL Committee was overwhelmed with choosing a solution, attentions/resources were diverted to pandemic recovery, or maybe busy day-to-day responsibilities and running your bank or credit union unintentionally let CECL slide to the backburner.
Though it’s been a stressful topic for years, Plansmith has made the process of adopting CECL as simple as possible. In fact, almost 300 organizations have already purchased and implemented our CECL solution.
As technology evolves and consumer trends are affected by outside social influences, including the COVID-19 pandemic, financial institutions are faced with ever-increasing competition. It is critical then, that organizations adopt new strategies to excel within their respective markets.
One of the best ways to do this is to incorporate peer analysis into your organization’s planning process.
Peer analysis is an impactful way to evaluate your bank’s performance within the context of your operating environment and business model. It can help you identify new opportunities, manage competitive pressures, and address regulatory hurdles. There are many facets to quality peer analysis but the most meaningful analysis hinges first on selecting the right peers.
Eliminate the ‘Yeah, buts’
For six wonderful years, I’ve had the privilege of being a part of Plansmith’s marketing team. From marketing assistant, to department manager, to my most recent role as Director of Marketing, I’ve experienced firsthand how important our company’s mission is: improving planning. Why? Because there is nothing more frustrating than having a brilliant idea with no real way of making it come to fruition. However, with incredible people and a quality plan, anything is possible – and doable.
Like many of you, I notice how important the planning process is when I’m putting together my ideas for next year. Though a marketing plan is a bit different than financial institution planning, the core concepts are the same.
Each January, we love to set resolutions. We painstakingly choose a lofty goal or two and optimistically embark, declaring, “this will be THE year for change!”.
Unfortunately, we often lose steam and quickly return to what is comfortable. For lack of a better term, we fail. We fail to change our approach and to reach our goals.
Establishing and maintaining a sound interest rate risk (IRR) program is crucial to ensure proper balance sheet structure and comply with Regulatory expectations. During my 20+ years as a senior FDIC examiner, I routinely saw organizations experiencing issues with their ALM/IRR practices, ranging from loose misunderstandings of the guidance to critical errors that put the health of the organization at risk. Unfortunately, in my current advisory role, I see the same issues all too often.
It seems like just yesterday (okay, it was a year ago) that I had just written a blog declaring the end to, or “the death of,” Surge Deposits. In that post, I had noted how at the time of, and following the 2007-2009 Great Recession, the banking industry saw a substantial influx of deposits as real estate and equity investors liquidated positions and sought safe places to store their money and ride out the storm. I further noted that as CD rates plummeted during, and following the economic crisis, CD holders weren’t being provided with any incentive to have their money “locked” into time deposits. As time deposits matured, CD holders routinely moved their balances into more liquid non-maturity deposits (NMDs). These former CD holders were essentially temporarily “parking” their money in NMD accounts, just waiting for CD rates to return to what they believed were more “normal” levels, at which time they’d move the balances back into time deposits.
2020 was an unprecedented year. Just when you finished creating a budget, it was decimated by the economic crisis. From there, time was spent reforecasting, helping allocate PPP loans, and adjusting to changing rate environments. Fast forward a year, and we’re slowly starting to get back to business as usual.
In addition to the usual financial planning, what do regulators want you to focus on in 2021? For most financial institutions, it’s going to be CECL.
Are you really planning, or are you just budgeting?
By this I mean, are you just filling out the numbers on a spreadsheet by trending? It is gratifying when all the numbers come together in a neat package showing expected growth and earnings for next year. Along the way there were probably many contributors who verbally expressed their goals and plans for the year. Then, once the budget is done, it gets presented to and accepted by the board. As each month passes, comparisons are made of the budget “predictions” to reality. Variances from “budget” are explained, and business continues. In essence, that’s budgeting.