So why do we keep hearing about “surge” deposits and how important it is to know if you’re holding any? Well, it might be because in the past 10 years, CD balances in FDIC insured institutions have fallen by $880 Billion; yes, that’s Billion with a capital “B.” And while that may be the bad news, the good news is that over the same time period, non-maturity deposits (DDAs, NOWs, Savings, and MMDAs) have grown by $5.9 Trillion (with a capital “T”).
The purchase of an asset liability management (ALM) system presents a problem to many bankers. Often the process begins with the creation of a checklist of features and functions then progresses to comparing vendors. The vendor with the highest "score" wins. While this may be a good start, there are dimensions to the problem that this ignores, specifically the quality and significance of the features identified.
Backtesting can be a painful topic for bankers. In this post, I'll answer the top 5 most common questions I hear about backtesting. I'll reference my first post, Independent Review, Model Validation, and Backtesting: Same Thing, Only Different, so you might want to revisit it before reading on. In that blog, we looked at the interrelationship of these three items and brought up a few questions on backtesting.
Specifically, we questioned 5 things: who should do it, how often should it be done, what period should be covered, do you need to backtest model results and assumptions, and why even bother if market rates really aren’t changing.
In the previous post we explored the concept of funds transfer pricing (FTP), but only on the surface level. Now for the good stuff: how should the FTP rate be assigned? Well, in a number of ways from the simple to the complex. Like a lot of things in life, simple means fast, easy, less data, good enough; whereas complex requires lots of patience and data for a little more accuracy.
One of the worst ways to get someone to do something you want is to tell them what to do. Most parents learn that lesson the hard way. The better way to incent certain behaviors is to have the other person see the benefit of exhibiting the desired behavior.
"In the 1981 film, "Raiders of the Lost Ark", one particular scene consistently brings the house down: Indiana Jones, having survived an elaborate chase through a casbah, is confronted by a swordsman whipping through a flashy routine with a scimitar. Indy initially squares off against the deadly swordsman bearing only his trademark whip in his hands; then with a look of infinite fatigue and disgust, he casually pulls out his revolver and blows the bad guy away." (Credit for text: Snopes.com)
Yep, the 90s. It was all the rage and I jumped on board like a millennial on the Grateful Dead Fare Thee Well scene – I’m not sure what it’s all about, but I want to say I was there.
“Where is someone that will pay me 1.5X book?; that’s what my Interest Rate Risk model says my bank is worth.” That statement, along with “there is no way this bank could be sold for 1.5X book”, are two comments I’ve heard a few too many times lately from bankers and examiners. While I will let you figure out which group is responsible for each statement, both illustrate a somewhat common misconception that capital values (sometimes called “market value of equity”) from interest rate risk models are meant to reflect actual current and projected institution sales prices.