Plansmith Blog

Risk is inevitable in banking; in fact, it’s what makes banking profitable. The question is, how much risk is acceptable? Recognizing that existing techniques of measurement were sometimes misleading and arbitrary, Plansmith developed a simple calculation called "Margin Risk Tolerance" that defines how much risk each bank can take. Despite the wealth of banking information Plansmith has at hand, we believe risk relates to the individual bank, and cannot be measured to any peer standard or magic number.

Margin risk tolerance calculates the minimum net interest income and net interest margin necessary to maintain continuing operations. Minimum margin consists of two basic components: 1) earnings needed to maintain an acceptable capital ratio and pay dividends, and 2) earnings needed for overhead.

For the past few years, I’ve written about the varying circumstances surrounding Surge Deposits. From “the death of” to the “resurgence,” it seems to be a consistently hot topic – this year, with a slight twist. While previously keeping a close watch on the influx of demand deposits, we’re now seeing increased pressure on funding flowing either from non-maturity deposits (NMDs) into higher costing CDs, or out of financial institutions all together. 

Before we get further, if you haven’t yet read my other blogs discussing Surge Deposits, or could use a refresher, click here to do so.

It was only two months ago we released a blog discussing the critical role that liquidity management will play in 2023. Fast forward to now, and two financial institutions have been closed due to, at least in part, funding imbalances – the first banks in three years to fail. Although liquidity and interest rate risk often take a backseat under stable economic conditions, times like these require you to take an in-depth look into your asset liability management program to ensure you have a plan to both meet funding needs and stay in compliance with regulatory expectations.

Planning in a Rising Rate Environment….didn’t see this coming?

We all knew that rates would be on the rise in 2022; it’s a normal reaction in an inflationary economy. But how many of us were able to predict when, how much, and how often those changes would occur?

Not to worry, one of the greatest advantages of a full simulation model is its ability to adapt! Managing your current plan should be no big deal as your Plansmith system uses dynamic models and a monthly RateForecast download to keep your plan current. This is truly where our products perform because of their ability to provide management with balance sheet, income statement, and yield/cost information that is current and reprojects the anticipated outcome at year end.

Is IRR and Liquidity Cash Flow Model Outsourcing Right for You?

That is a question a lot of CFOs and Presidents struggle with. Here at Plansmith, it really doesn’t matter to us whether you run the model yourself, or you outsource it to us. In fact, we have many clients on both sides of that fence, and even some that do a little of each. We just want you to be comfortable with whichever option you choose, be confident in your model results, and be sure your ALM process will pass the test at regulatory exams.

We have some exciting news! Our first installment of Plansmith’s Client Spotlight Series is here. Our intimate spotlights are designed with you in mind. You’ll hear firsthand from our guests as they share their real-life experiences with planning, budgeting, managing risk, and making strategic business decisions.

For the past ten years or so, surge deposits have been a material issue in asset/liability management. At the time of, and following the 2007-2009 Great Recession, the banking industry saw a substantial influx of deposits as real estate and equity investors liquidated positions and sought safe places to store their money and ride out the storm. The impact of this flight to safety was compounded by Government sponsored initiatives such as the Transaction Account Guarantee (TAG) Program and increases in Federal deposit insurance levels.

As a result, banks experienced significant deposit growth, and while these surge deposits would have normally been seen as a good thing, the near evaporation of loan demand left many banks with far more deposit dollars than they could effectively put to use. In turn, market liquidity levels skyrocketed, but margins were compressed. For the purpose of this article, we’ll refer to these funds moving from real estate, equities, or any other investments into the banking system as Type I Surge Deposits.

Everyone probably has their budgets in place for 2020 by now. And now comes along the Coronavirus and messes everything up. The Fed has already lowered rates by half a point. So, now you’re scrambling to figure out how this will impact your 2020 plans?

Seems like you have a few choices:

As we move into a new year, you may still be working on a few of those items you didn’t quite get to in 2019. And for a lot of our clients, one of those items is often backtesting. Given all the confusion surrounding backtesting, it can be pretty easy to keep pushing it to the bottom of the “to-do” list.

So, we thought it might be a good idea to dust off a blog I wrote back in 2015 to jump start your 2020 so you can get one more thing crossed off your list. In that blog, we looked at a few of the most common questions we get on backtesting. Specifically, we discussed who should do it; how often it should be done; what period should be covered; and if you need to backtest just model results, or also key model assumptions.

Knowing and understanding your organization's risk position is important. Regulators expect you to keep a close eye on your IRR exposure and be ready for a rising rate environment.