Plansmith Blog

"Which measurements would you consider highest priority in 2026?"

I’d say that Net Interest Margin (NIM) changes and Economic Value of Equity (EVE) should continue to be the primary focus of IRR management in 2026. Gap calculations rarely give the full picture (they're focused on timing of repricing, not magnitude), and Duration measurements can be difficult to understand. Given the rate drops we've seen so far and the expectations for further decreases, all financial institution managers and directors should have a clear understanding of how future market rate changes could impact both shorter-term earnings (i.e., NIM in the next one and two years) and longer-term capital values (i.e., EVE).

As another summer fades into the review mirror, I think back to all those family vacations my wife and I took our kids on and the all too familiar question that came every year as we got closer to our destination (and the end of my patience); “Are we there yet?” And just like how we never seemed to get to that destination fast enough, the banking industry just can’t get to a place of deposit stability fast enough either.

Planning for opportunities drives growth; preparing for challenges ensures survival. Despite lingering unknowns like tariffs, governmental tensions, and stubborn inflation, community bankers are entering 2026 with optimism. This positive outlook is supported by the ABA Economic Advisory Committee (2025), which expects modest economic gains in 2026, driven primarily by stronger consumer spending.

The question is: how can you leverage new opportunities while preparing for inevitable challenges?

AI is transforming the way we work, and, at Plansmith, we're excited to be part of the movement. In August 2025, we proudly launched our latest innovation, RiskGPS AI Assist, available in our BankersGPS model. Since then, we've received thoughtful questions from clients exploring the new feature. One in particular stood out, and we couldn't resist sharing it with you.

Over the past several years, the banking industry has seen seismic shifts in deposits as trillions of dollars in Government stimulus were released into the economy, followed by a period of dramatic increases in market rates, which then resulted in massive amounts of low yielding balances migrating into higher-paying CDs and non-bank investment products.

Establishing and maintaining a sound interest rate risk (IRR) management program is crucial to ensure proper balance sheet structure and comply with Regulatory expectations. During my 20+ years as a senior FDIC examiner, I routinely saw organizations experiencing issues with their ALM/IRR practices, ranging from loose misunderstandings of the guidance to critical errors that put the health of the organization at risk. Unfortunately, in my current advisory role, all too often, I see the same issues.

"Which measurements would you put highest priority on in 2024?"

I’d say that Net Interest Margin (NIM) changes and Economic Value of Equity (EVE) should continue to be the primary focus of IRR management in 2024. Gap calculations rarely give the full picture (focused on timing of reprice, and not magnitude), and Duration measurements can be difficult to understand. Given the extreme rate increases in the past two years and the bank failures in 2023, all financial institution managers and directors should have a clear understanding of how future market rate changes could impact both shorter-term earnings (aka the NIM in the next one and two years) and longer-term capital values (aka the EVE).

The Fed has officially raised rates, with the intention of continuing to do so several more times this year. What does that mean for your financial institution, and how will it affect your Budgeting and ALM/IRR programs in 2022? Let’s focus on a few areas of concern, specifically Financial Reporting, Strategic Decision Making, and Board/ALCO oversight.

Given the current low-rate environment, I’ve again been getting some questions on “negative rates” and the impact they would have on financial institutions, and more specifically interest rate risk modeling. We’ve all heard about negative rates in Japan and parts of Europe, so it would seem reasonable to wonder about the impact that negative rates could have here in the U.S.

Given the historic low U.S Treasury rate environment and the recent 150 basis point near-immediate drop in rates, we’re expecting an increased regulatory focus on interest rate risk (IRR) and liquidity management.

It’s no doubt that financial institutions will see pressure to not only reforecast their 2020 budgets, but also to run future IRR shocks and more custom “what-if” scenarios as part of their regular IRR modeling program. Liquidity management and stressed-scenario cash flow modeling are also more important now than ever.